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The true statistics
A couple of years ago I’ve read a story in the newspaper about a couple that sailed in a yacht in the Atlantic Ocean. At a certain moment, a cow fell from an airplane flying over them straight on the woman and killed her. The question asked naturally by most people reading this story is, what is the chance for this kind of incident of happening? Considering the size of the Atlantic Ocean, how did the cow fall exactly on the lady? I have got an explanation to make this story look a little more logical. First of all, a very small chance is still not impossible. Remember Murphy’s Law: If it might happen, it will happen. The second and main explanation is: Let’s say that the chance that the sail across the Atlantic will be completely boring is 40%. That means that there is a chance of 60% that something will happen on the way. Anything. That anything is divided to many possibilities; each one separately has a small chance of occurring. If you had predicted in advance the exact incident of the cow falling on the woman’s head in the middle of the ocean – and you didn’t – I would tell you that the chance of it happening is very close to zero. In fact, the chance to predict the incident is no bigger than the chance for the incident to occur. That’s why the chance for it to happen is not important. There is still a 60% chance for something to happen, which is the better chance, and that could be anything unpredictable. |
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May, 2012
2008
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2009
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2010
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2011
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2012
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